Nick Agule
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When President Tinubu was elected in 2023, I was genuinely optimistic that energy would top his agenda. The expectations were well-founded – President Tinubu’s background as both an oil industry professional and a finance expert is a rare and potent combination for transforming Nigeria’s energy landscape.
During his tenure as Governor of Lagos State, he initiated one of Nigeria’s most ambitious energy projects – the Enron Power Project, designed to generate 270 megawatts of electricity for Lagos. Unfortunately, that initiative was halted by the Federal Government under President Obasanjo, as electricity then remained on the exclusive legislative list, preventing states from operating independently in that sector.
Given this pedigree, my confidence was high that President Tinubu would finally confront the deep-rooted challenges in Nigeria’s energy sector and unlock the immense potential that lies within it.
However, more than two years into his administration, the energy sector remains one of his weakest areas of performance, and the reasons are not difficult to identify:
Petrol Subsidy Removal and Refinery Inaction
President Tinubu was right to remove the petrol subsidy – it was unsustainable and long overdue. However, the absence of any decisive action on refinery rehabilitation or replacement has severely undermined the benefits of that reform.
Policy direction has been inconsistent. The NNPCL GMD initially hinted at a possible sale of the refineries, only to retract under pressure. Now, while he speaks of “technical partnerships,” the President’s adviser on energy continues to advocate outright privatisation. This lack of coherence has created uncertainty.
After two and a half years in office, the administration still hasn’t settled on a clear path forward for the refineries, leaving Nigerians to bear the brunt of a N1,000-per-litre petrol price. The President must restore clarity, coordination, and urgency in this area.
Power Sector Paralysis
President Tinubu’s administration has not done enough to address the failed privatisation of the power sector under President Jonathan. That process was deeply flawed from the start and cannot be fixed by mere patches – it requires a complete overhaul, following the telecommunications reform model that successfully opened up that industry.
Leaving transmission in government control effectively crippled the entire power value chain: private generating companies can’t produce what the grid can’t transmit, and distributors can’t sell what they don’t receive.
President Tinubu inherited roughly 5,000 MW of generation capacity, and after 2.5 years, there have been no major new projects to expand supply. Without fresh capacity, tariff adjustments alone cannot solve the crisis.
Underperformance in Oil and Gas Production
Although there have been some modest achievements in the oil and gas sector, the pace of investment remains far below Nigeria’s potential.
The contrast is stark:
The United States has reserves of around 50 billion barrels and produces about 20 million barrels per day.
Nigeria, with 38 billion barrels in reserves (about 76% of U.S. reserves), produces under 2 million barrels per day (barely 10% of U.S. output).
Additionally, Nigeria holds over 200 trillion standard cubic feet of natural gas, largely untapped. Unlocking this resource base requires bold reforms, investor confidence, and credible leadership at the sectoral level.
Leadership and Expertise Deficit
One of the administration’s most consequential missteps was the President’s decision to retain the Petroleum portfolio. While understandable from a position of oversight, it has inevitably limited the attention the sector requires, given the President’s wide-ranging responsibilities.
Moreover, the ministers appointed to oversee the key energy portfolios lack deep industry experience:
The Minister of State for Petroleum is a lawyer and lifelong politician with no oil industry experience whatsoever!
The Minister of State for Gas is a biologist, also without oil and gas experience.
The Minister of Power comes from a finance background and appears focused on revenue collection rather than generation expansion.
Technical sectors require technical leadership – individuals with both local understanding and global networks capable of attracting large-scale investments.
The Way Forward
President Tinubu must reset his energy team, starting with relinquishing the Petroleum portfolio to a competent, reform-minded energy industry professional, which Nigeria has in abundance. He should bring in seasoned experts to head the Petroleum, Gas, and Power ministries – people who can translate policy intent into measurable outcomes.
Without powering the economy, the vision of a trillion-dollar Nigeria will remain aspirational. Even in the divine order, light came first before progress – God said – “Let there be light.”
President Tinubu’s quest to build a modern economy cannot succeed in darkness. Energy is the foundation of development – and it’s time to make it Nigeria’s top priority.
This piece is a response to comments reportedly made by President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Energy, Olu Verheijen, that the Federal Government is considering selling the country’s refineries (see link below).
Nick Agule is an energy expert.
