NRS Chairman, Zacch Adedeji
Nigeria could have spent as much as N53 trillion on petrol subsidies and seen the naira depreciate to about N3,500 to the dollar if the Federal Government had not removed the subsidy regime and unified the foreign exchange market, the Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Dr Zacch Adedeji, has declared.
Adedeji made the assertion in an interview with Channels Television on Sunday August 9, while defending the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu.
According to him, the subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms were painful but necessary measures to address longstanding fiscal and monetary distortions and prevent further deterioration of the economy.
“At that time we were at the lowest point. Actually, we’d reached the bottom, and if the President had not taken that decision at that time, only God knows where we would have been now,” he said.
Adedeji said the cost of maintaining the petrol subsidy would have become unsustainable amid rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
“The subsidy today would have been N53 trillion if President Tinubu had not removed it, given what is happening in Iran, given what is happening globally, and the total budget of Nigeria today is N63 trillion,” he said.
He argued that retaining the subsidy would have consumed a substantial portion of the Federal Government’s budget, leaving fewer resources for infrastructure, social programmes and other development priorities.
The NRS chief also maintained that the continuation of the previous foreign exchange regime would have placed further pressure on the naira.
“The exchange rate today would have been naira at N3,500 to a dollar if that had not been done,” Adedeji said.
He said the reforms were beginning to produce signs of macroeconomic recovery, citing improvements in government revenue, external reserves, trade and capital inflows.
According to figures cited by the NRS, Nigeria’s trade position improved from a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
The composition of exports is also changing, with exports of other oil products rising by 51 per cent year-on-year to N6.78 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, although crude oil remains the dominant export.
Capital importation has also increased, rising from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, capital inflows reached $10.37 billion.
The NRS also pointed to rising tax revenue as evidence of improved government finances, with collections increasing from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026.
External reserves were reported at $51.9 billion in July 2026, while Nigeria’s balance of payments had moved from deficit to surplus.
The service also cited growth in market capitalisation, which rose from about N30 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.
On social indicators, the NRS said the minimum wage had doubled between 2023 and 2026, while government policies and incentives had contributed to a reduction in the estimated number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, based on UNICEF estimates.
It also highlighted the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other domestic refineries, saying the policy had contributed to Nigeria’s transition from a net importer to a net exporter of petroleum products.
Adedeji maintained that although the reforms had imposed significant short-term pressure on households and businesses, they were necessary to restore the country’s fiscal and external balance and create the conditions for sustainable economic growth.
