By EJIROGHENE BARRET –
June 25th marked a new twist in the run up to the September governorship race in Edo state, and in the long drawn tussle between the incumbent governor, Godwin Obaseki, and his predecessor, the recently dropped chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Adams Oshiomhole, as the governor secured the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket to contest for the elections.
It is ironic that, two weeks after Obaseki’s controversial disqualification from contesting in the APC primaries, Oshiomhole was stripped of his position as chairman of the APC on the same day he (Obaseki) secured his governorship ticket.
What seemed like a simple misunderstanding between two former political allies, which many believed would be resolved by the intervention of other influential party members, has now morphed into one of the most epic political battles in Nigeria’s recent democratic history; a battle that may redefine the limitations of political surrogacy in the country.
Several pundits describe the state governor’s resignation from the ruling party and defection to the opposition PDP as political suicide because, they say, he would not be able to match state resources against federal might in determining the outcome of the gubernatorial elections coming up in November. It is anticipated that the elections would expose levels of artifice, informed by financial inducements and coercive tactics, that the state’s limited resources and constitutional restrictions on its control of state security apparatus would not allow it pull out.
Several critics of the governor have also said he would not be able to garner as much public support under the PDP due to the APC’s extensive network of support built over eight years across the state, and also as a result of the large followership of both chosen governorship candidate for the APC, Osagie Ize-Iyamu, and Oshiomhole. It is believed that these two men enjoy popular support, which makes them among the most resilient political figures in the state. For these pundits, the governor’s approval ratings may not be able to stand up to Ize-Iyamu’s political network, and Oshiomhole’s popularity.
A point missed on those who predict the governor’s loss is that, with his victory at the PDP primaries the permutations are no longer focused on internal party influences that will determine whether he carries the party flag but on the choice of the state electorate. This is what Obaseki has always insisted on; the opportunity to present himself and his records before the electorate rather than submit to the obvious artifice of a select group within the party determined to halt his ambition.
In spite of their apparent political influence in the state, Oshiomhole and Ize-Iyamu will be constrained by the new developments within the APC. Oshiomhole’s removal as national chairman flips the cards completely as his political influence in the state would take a serious blow from the NEC decision.
How Oshiomhole intends to revive his political fortunes and go on to sell Ize-Iyamu, a former political rival whom he described in very derogatory terms and accused of many crimes before crowds across the state during the 2016 governorship campaigns will be a challenge for his team. It is even more of a mystery how president Buhari and the APC intend to campaign for a man indicted by the nation’s anti-corruption agency for allegations that were brazenly spread by Oshiomhole.
The confirmation of Ize-Iyamu’s right to waiver by the APC at the courts is a victory that may give him some leverage. Also, the directive by the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party to endorse his candidacy is a welcomed validation but he may not be in the clear yet.
A recent court decision that confirmed the legitimacy of the Anselm Ojezua-led faction of the APC state executive may eventually lead to Ize-Iyamu’s disqualification from the governorship race if it is brought up for further judicial consideration as the state primaries were conducted by another faction of the party in the state. This is, however, open for legal interpretation.
Obaseki’s move may be a masterstroke of sorts as he has been able to anchor his political ship at the port of a strong opposition that has a well established network of support across the state as well. Predictions of the governor’s imminent loss at the governorship polls ignore the fact that the PDP has strong political roots in Edo state.
Since 1999 the PDP has never lost the presidential elections in the state, it has always won 2 of the 3 Senatorial Districts and holds several of the state’s House of Representatives seats at the national assembly. Also, with the defection of the only ten members sitting at the state House of Assembly, the current power configuration favours the PDP.
For the PDP, this is a fortuitous political bonus. Beyond its strength in numbers across the state, the party is also riding on the apparent popularity that the governor enjoys for embarking on major social reforms and dedication to an infrastructural development road map he helped design under Oshiomhole.
Obaseki has also provided the party total control of the south-south geopolitical zone and a new platform to launch a stronger campaign for federal control in 2023. For this reason, the governors on the party platform would employ all possible strategies to ensure he wins the elections.
It would be interesting to see how Oshiomhole pulls this one off: the APC is going into this battle with half its original political strength in the state and serious divisions at the top, against a well-funded political machine in Edo state that has the support of all the South South states.
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