The recent disclosure by former Lagos state governor and All Progressives Congress national leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while speaking to delegates in Abeokuta indicates that there are already cracks within the All Progressives Congress (APC) that could affect its chances at the presidential polls in 2023.
Tinubu did not mince his words in protesting the lack of support by president Buhari for his presidential aspiration and made strong claims for which he has been chided by some party leaders. However, Tinubu saw the political imperative in addressing the issues at the time he did, probably intending to stir sectarian sentiments as a tool for his agitation.
No one knows for sure, but it is looking like he will not fly the party’s flag at the polls, and all indications seem to be pointing to the Vice-President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, as the likely candidate. However, Tinubu’s mastery of politics would tell him that fighting presidential whim in Nigeria is not the easiest of tasks and would require a more studied approach.
He would best sit this one out and accept his well established role as a political fixer who has made his mark in Nigeria’s political history. Rather than roll in the mud at this point, he would do well to take part in the consultations to produce a candidate for the party. The thinking in the party hierarchy is that, as a presidential candidate, the muckraking would be too much distraction for him and for the APC.
A politician of Tinubu’s standing should know that this is one of the spin-offs of party politics an the consequences of picking either of two possible reactions to the impasse have been experienced in the United States of America before.
The decision by the Democrats to drop Bernie Sanders for Hillary Clinton in 2016, was one of the underlying causes of her defeat by Donald Trump in the November, 2016, U.S presidential elections. The aggrieved Progressives within the party actively worked against Clinton’s ambition and reduced her numbers at the polls.
The reverse happened in 2020, when Sanders was again denied the ticket. This time, reeling from the damning consequences of a Trump presidency, the Progressives remained within the party ranks and the results at the November, 2020, presidential elections showed the benefits of cohesion.
For a seasoned politician, Tinubu made some unexpected blunders. By stepping into the fray at such an early stage, he should have known that he was setting himself up for the kill. It is politics 101 in Nigeria that a smart politician keeps his aspirations and interests quiet until the last minute because his whole life comes under public scrutiny and the critics and opponents would have time to prepare a battle plan to scuttle that aspiration.
Secondly, Tinubu should also have known that history has never been favourable to a “king-maker” becoming The “king” in Nigeria. Apart from the military era, no Nigerian democratically elected president has ever risen to power purely by the force of their ambitions.
The one time Nigeria found itself in such an episode was former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s tenure, which was probably proof enough for the coterie of decision-makers, usually within the party hierarchy, that such mistake would not be made again.
With the constitutional powers that the Nigerian president possesses, it is believed that a candidate for the seat must not have a domineering personality, so as to avoid tyrannical use of the instruments of office.
Tinubu did not help the situation much with the apparent self-absorption that his words implied. The idea that the desire to be president is inspired only by the conceited opinion that ‘it is my turn’ would certainly not sit well with most people and speaks of arrogance and a neglect of the social and economic challenges that require urgent attention.
There would have been more empathy with his cause if he had articulated his policy direction rather than his “life long ambition” just to be president. In spite of the significance of power rotation in Nigeria’s political framework, making that issue the main incentive driving his ambition only provides fodder for incendiary agitations along ethnic lines that could set a dangerous precedence.
Political observers have noted that, by its numbers and political affiliation, it would be expedient for the southwest to produce the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate. It would help to maintain its numbers there, which were undoubtedly helpful in securing victory for the party in 2015 and 2019 general elections.
The APC also holds a majority of the states there and this would be an important leverage to maintain its dominance in the polls in 2023. However, this is more a calculation that is the result of a rational strategy than an appeal to ethnic sentiments and it would have been best if Tinubu kept it that way.
It would be best for Tinubu to stay with the party. For one, if Tinubu works against APC’s victory at the presidential polls, and the APC governors are able to secure victory for the party in their states, it would only embolden them and further undermine his relevance. Playing it cool will give him the chance to still maintain his influence in the corridors of power.
On the flip side, Tinubu’s relevance to the APC’s hold in the southwest cannot be underestimated, and any attempt by the governors to undermine this by an imposition of their whims over the zone may give the APC a bloodied nose at the polls.
Regardless of his flaws, or an ambition that seems to distort his perception of the core issues to be addressed, Tinubu remains an important force and must be persuaded to remain in the party and work for its interest or the party may implode.
He has a national and a regional structure that has been built and strengthened over the years. He is also an accomplished administrator. He is in control of his state, which has the numbers to tilt the balance in favour of any party at the polls, and these numbers usually come from the grassroots; a group he has strong support among.
The party may not pick him as the candidate, for whatever reasons, but he cannot be allowed to abandon ship at such a crucial point in the party’s existence.
The governors may have confidence in the structures they have built in their individual states, but none of them has the regional appeal that would sustain their control over the party machinery that would ensure the party’s continued dominance after the polls. They also do not possess the staying power that has been one of the most endearing qualities of Tinubu.
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