Likely acceptable to technocratic and reform-minded voters
Weaknesses:
Limited grassroots political structure
Not known for populist mobilization
Depends heavily on elite endorsement (especially Akume bloc)
Chance: Moderate—but only if backed strongly by Akume and paired with a strong grassroots running mate
(2) Dr. Pius Akutah – Kwande
Pius Akutah
Strengths:
Current Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Shippers Council (federal exposure)
Close to power at the center
Seen as part of Akume’s trusted circle
Weaknesses:
Limited statewide political identity
Perceived as “Abuja candidate”
Needs heavy structure-building in Benue
Chance: Moderate to strong—IF Akume fully anoints him
(3) Dr. Mathias Byuan – Jechira
Mathias Byuan
Strengths:
Grassroots familiarity in Jechira
Political experience and network
Weaknesses:
Limited statewide recognition
May struggle against better-known or better-funded aspirants
Chance: Low to moderate unless he becomes a consensus Jechira candidate or earns Akume’s confidence.
(4) Prof. Terhemba Shija – Jechira
Terhemba Shija
Strengths:
Intellectual depth and academic credibility
Appeals to educated class and civil servants
Has the experience of successfully leading a state-wide gubernatorial campaign
Weaknesses:
Not a career politician
Weak personal grassroots political machinery
Chance: Low unless there is a technocratic wave or elite consensus mixed with support by select Benue political brokers
(5) Hon. Herman Hembe – Jechira
Herman Hembe
Strengths:
Strong political experience (former House of Reps member)
Name recognition across the state
Skilled in political combat
Weaknesses:
Past controversies may resurface
Perceived as a polarizing figure in some circles
Chance: Strongest among Jechira contenders if the race is open and competitive
The Real Contest: 3 Possible Scenarios
Scenario A: Alia Retains APC Control
Hyacinth Alia runs with incumbency advantage
Opposition fragments
Most aspirants fail unless there is a major fallout
Outcome: Alia favored
Scenario B: Akume Bloc Takes Control of Benue APC and Produces One Strong Candidate Against Gov. Alia
George Akume unifies his loyalists. For now, there are too many aspirants in his camp
Likely candidate: Akutah or another loyal technocrat/politician hybrid
Outcome: Very competitive race vs Alia. However, the possibility of aggrieved loyalists working against Akume’s final anointed and shifting support to Gov. Alia in the main election should not be ignored. This possibility is anchored on the likelihood that even if Gov. Alia fails to secure the APC ticket in an open direct primary election, he can still run on another party platform of his choice, probably through some predetermined and agreed consensus model, which may affect APC chances in Benue State.
Scenario C: Fragmentation (Most Likely Today)
Multiple aspirants from Kwande and Jechira
No consensus candidate
Vote splitting in APC direct primaries
Outcome: Incumbent advantage (Alia benefits)
What Benue State needs to hear from those aspirants and their supporters is not more criticism of Gov. Alia but what they will do better and how they will do those things. Benue people need to hear about the necessary reforms that they will introduce. At the moment, many Benue people who cry, “No Alia, no Benue” are stuck to the narrative, “Alia is paying salaries and building roads,” and it is a fact that most Benue electorate are one-issue voters. So how can those aspirants convince such voters that the “Asortar U Tiv” should be abandoned by them?
Hard Truth
None of the current contenders or aspirants—respectfully—carry a transformational vision strong enough to reset Benue. At least I am yet to read any.
Most are:
Positioning within existing power structures
Not redefining the system
The real question is not:
“Who will be governor in 2027?”
But:
“Will Benue produce a different kind of leadership, or recycle the same structure?”
Additionally, Benue voters don’t seem to mind the names and identities of political parties, because none has demonstrated superiority over the rest in significant ways. They have seen a Benue governor cross from party to party. They have voted in again their governor and voted against the president in their second term contests. They have voted back in an incumbent governor who fell out with and forced his godfather out of the ruling party.
What Benue voters have not witnessed is an incumbent Benue governor, who fell out with his godfather, contesting and winning re-election on the same platform that he contested on the first time while the godfather and himself are still within the same political party. Nonetheless, an inconvenient truth that some don’t want to say openly is that once Benue voters have affirmed their love for their governor, his political platform is immaterial.
