Why Okonjo-Iweala Was Right
Nick Agule
Email: nick.agule@yahoo.co.uk
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Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s statement that President Tinubu deserves credit for stabilising the economy is not just diplomatic—it’s analytically sound. Stability is the prerequisite for any meaningful reform. Without it, growth is impossible. But unfortunately, many Nigerians appear to have misread Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala, leading to misguided backlash.
Let us break down the reality using the analogy of doctors in an emergency unit of a hospital:
1. Economic triage analogy: Nigeria was haemorrhaging from reckless monetary expansion, subsidy fraud, and forex arbitrage. Tinubu’s early actions—removing fuel subsidy, halting money printing, and unifying forex markets—were akin to emergency surgery to stabilise patient Nigeria.
2. Inflation containment: Inflation, while still high, has stopped its dangerous upward spiral. July 2025 figures show a cooling to 21.88%. This is stability.
3. Forex rationalisation: The naira now trades within a stable band (N1,500–N1,600), eliminating arbitrage opportunities that previously drained public funds. This is stability.
But Stabilisation Is Not a Cure
Stability is the floor, not the ceiling. Without growth and social cushioning, patient Nigeria risks slipping into economic coma. Let us put two of the flagship policies of Tinubunomics under the X-ray:
1. Fuel subsidy removal: While it stopped treasury looting, it hasn’t yet catalysed domestic refining. NNPCL refineries remain idle, and Dangote’s monopoly lacks pricing pressure.
2. Forex unification: It ended arbitrage but made imports prohibitively expensive. No clear import substitution strategy has followed.
Growth Requires Sectoral Activation
Mrs. Iweala’s call for growth and safety nets is a roadmap. Here’s what’s needed:
Sector Reform Needed
*Agriculture* – Security for farmers, mechanisation, irrigation
*Industry* – Power supply, tax reform, infrastructure
Energy & Power – Attract private sector operatorship of TCN for grid upgrades and modernisation, unbundle the DISCOs and re-award licences to more competent operators. Boost crude oil production: The US has 50 billion bbls in reserves and producing 13 million bbls per day. Nigeria has 38 billion bbls in reserves but producing less than 2 million bbls.
*Infrastructure* – Roads, rail, broadband. 35 states are still not connected to the federal capital by rail.
*Digital Economy* – Rural connectivity, start-up support
*Health & Education* – Primary care, public health, hospital infrastructure, healthcare workers’ welfare, school infrastructure, teachers’ welfare
Fiscal Capacity and Private Sector Involvement
Given a federal budget of approximately $35 billion, Nigeria’s fiscal space is severely constrained. This allocation must cover a wide array of obligations—from debt servicing and recurrent expenditure to essential public services—leaving limited room for strategic investment in growth-driving sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, and innovation.
To bridge this gap, the active participation of the private sector is not optional—it is imperative. Unlocking private capital, fostering public-private partnerships, and creating a predictable investment climate are critical to achieving sustainable development and inclusive economic expansion. The government must focus on enabling policies, while the private sector drives execution and scale.
Conclusion: Stabilisation Is Not Success
Tinubu’s reforms have stopped the bleeding. But healing requires sustained treatment—growth, jobs, and protection for the vulnerable – which must come with speed! Okonjo-Iweala’s assessment is not just correct; it’s a call to action.
_Nick Agule is a Nigerian citizen and public affairs analyst passionate about the development of Nigeria_
