Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, from 15.91 per cent in June, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday August 17.
The NBS said the July figure represented a 0.48 percentage-point decline from the previous month, indicating a slower increase in the overall price level.
On a month-on-month basis, however, inflation stood at 1.57 per cent in July, down from 1.66 per cent in June, representing a 0.09 percentage-point decline.
The bureau said the lower month-on-month rate meant that prices continued to rise in July, but at a slower pace than in June.
Despite the moderation in headline inflation, food inflation accelerated sharply, rising to 20.31 per cent year-on-year in July.
The NBS attributed the increase to higher prices of commodities including rice, water yam and plantain, as well as crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, tomatoes, garri, beef, eggs, guinea corn and ginger.
Food inflation also increased significantly on a month-on-month basis, reaching 5.56 per cent in July, compared with 3.75 per cent in June. This represents an increase of 1.82 percentage points.
The NBS data showed significant differences across states.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Adamawa at 17.02 per cent, followed by Lagos at 13.48 per cent and Borno at 13.26 per cent.
Jigawa recorded the largest decline at -3.68 per cent, followed by Kebbi at -3.67 per cent and Bauchi at -1.85 per cent.
On a year-on-year basis, Adamawa recorded the highest food inflation at 51.36 per cent, followed by Katsina at 30.84 per cent and Zamfara at 30.65 per cent.
Borno recorded the slowest year-on-year increase at -0.31 per cent, followed by Nasarawa at 6.88 per cent and Kebbi at 12.50 per cent.
What this means for househood living conditions
Analysts say the July figures present a mixed inflation picture. The decline in headline inflation is positive because it indicates that the general pace of price increases is easing.
The moderation in month-on-month headline inflation also suggests that underlying price pressures may be losing some momentum. However, the sharp rise in food inflation is a major concern for households because food accounts for a substantial share of consumer spending.
The 5.56 per cent monthly increase in food prices means consumers continued to face strong pressure on their purchasing power even as headline inflation moderated.
The divergence between headline and food inflation also suggests that the improvement in the overall inflation rate has not yet translated into broad-based relief in the cost of living.
The state-level figures point to significant differences in food supply, transportation costs, market conditions and agricultural production across the country. While some parts of the country might be buying cheaper food stuffs, others may be paying premium prices for staple foods.
For the Central Bank of Nigeria, the data provide both encouraging and worrying signals. The decline in headline inflation could support a gradual easing of monetary pressure if the trend is sustained.
However, the sharp acceleration in food prices could make policymakers cautious, particularly if food inflation begins to feed into broader price expectations.
The key issue for the economy is therefore whether the decline in headline inflation will continue in the coming months while food inflation begins to moderate.
A sustained reduction would strengthen the case that Nigeria’s inflationary pressures are easing; otherwise, the headline decline could provide only limited relief to households.
